BAKERPICKS

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Every metric. Every day. Published automatically.

Win Rate?Percentage of predictions that hit. Breakeven on standard -110 odds is 52.4%.
49.8%
vs 52.4% breakeven
ROI?Return on investment assuming flat $100 bets. Positive ROI means profit.
-5.6%
Brier Score?Accuracy of probability predictions. Ranges 0-1, lower is better. A coin flip scores 0.25.
0.2731
lower is better
ECE?Expected Calibration Error: how well predicted probabilities match actual outcomes. Lower is better. Perfect model = 0.
0.1391
lower is better
CLV Mean?Closing Line Value: how often we beat the closing line. Positive CLV means getting better prices than the market settles at.
+0.0078
positive = beating the close
Props Graded?Total number of prop predictions graded in this window.
2,096

Calibration Curve

Rolling CLV

Rolling ECE

Rolling Win Rate

Daily ROI

Segmented Performance

Daily Results Archive

DatePropsWin RateROICLV Mean
Feb 23, 202668865.0%+23.4%+0.0078
Feb 22, 2026140842.4%-19.7%N/A

Model Versions

Game Modelunknown
unregistered
Minutes Modelunknown
unregistered
Points Rateunknown
v2026.02.24-test123
Oct 1, 2023 Feb 24, 2026
Rebounds Rateunknown
unregistered
Assists Rateunknown
unregistered
3PT Rateunknown
unregistered
Steals Rateunknown
unregistered
Blocks Rateunknown
unregistered
Turnovers Rateunknown
unregistered

Retrain Log

Feb 24, 2026active
v2026.02.24
Points RateRebounds RateAssists Rate3PT RateSteals RateBlocks RateTurnovers RateMinutes ModelGame Model
Trigger: scheduled