A forecasting lab, not a gambling influencer.
BakerPicks publishes calibration curves, Brier scores, and closing line value — because trust is earned with data, not screenshots.
What makes us different
In an industry built on hype, we built on accountability.
How it works
Quantitative forecasting, not vibes.
10,000 Monte Carlo Simulations
Every projection is a full probability distribution, not a single number. We simulate minutes, per-36 rates, and stat-specific noise 10,000 times per player.
Three-Stage Pipeline
Game-level context feeds into player minutes prediction, which feeds into per-36 rate models. Every stat is contextually aware of game flow.
Daily Calibration Feedback
Every night, the model grades itself against actual results. Platt recalibration and adaptive bias corrections run automatically.
Transparent by Default
Every metric, every day, published automatically. Model versions, retrain events, cold streaks — all visible at BakerPicks.com/transparency.
See for yourself.
Every prediction graded. Every metric published. Every day.
Open the Transparency Dashboard